Adrian E. Raftery

Adrian is Blumstein-Jordan Professor of Statistics and Sociology and Director of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences at the University of Washington. He is a former Coordinating Editor and Applications and Case Studies Editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association and a former Editor of Sociological Methodology. He works on the development of new statistical methods for the social, environmental and health sciences.

• Working Group on Applied, Bayesian and Computational Statistics: Spring 2008 Schedule

• Recent publications and technical reports and working papers have been added to the website. The Research pages have also been updated.

• Papers recently accepted for publication (earlier versions online):
  
  • Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness.
  • Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
  • Model-based Clustering with Dissimilarities: A Bayesian Approach.
  • Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts
  • Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging.
  • Bayesian Regularization for Normal Mixture Estimation and Model-Based Clustering

• Recent publications:
  
  • Estimating the Integrated Likelihood via Posterior Simulation Using the Harmonic Mean Identity.
  • Assessing Uncertainty in Urban Simulations Using Bayesian Melding.
  • Model-based methods of classification: Using the mclust software in chemometrics.
  • Variable Selection for Model-Based Clustering.
  • Robust Estimation of cDNA Microarray Intensities with Replicates.
  • Bayesian Robust Inference for Differential Gene Expression in cDNA Microarrays with Multiple Samples.
  • Computing Normalizing Constants for Finite Mixture Models via Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling (IMIS).
  • Model-Based Region-of-Interest Selection in Dynamic Breast MRI.
  • Real-Time Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Website.
  • Some applications of model-based clustering in chemistry.
  • Model-based microarray image analysis.

• Recent technical reports and working papers:
  
  • Probabilistic Projections of HIV Prevalence Using Bayesian Melding.
  • Bayesian Robust Variable and Transformation Selection: A Unified Approach.
  • MCLUST Version 3 for R: Normal Mixture Modeling and Model-Based Clustering.

  Last updated April 3, 2008