CSSS/SOC/STAT 536 Applied Logistic Regression and Log-Linear Modeling for the Social Sciences

Instructor: Kevin Quinn

Overview and Class Goals

Categorical data are the most common form of data collected in the social sciences. Examples of categorical variables include: voting decisions, occupational choice, social and political attitudes measured on "7-point" scales, marital status, and a person's decision whether to enter the workforce.

This class is designed to provide students with a basic theoretical understanding and firm practical knowledge of regression models for binary and polychotomous data as well as log-linear models for 2, 3, and multiway tables. The primary goal of the class is to provide students with a set of tools that will help them make accurate inferences when confronted with categorical data.

Announcements

If you are sitting in on this course, please sign up to audit it

Course Materials

Course Syllabus (PDF postscript)

Notes on Discrete Probability Distributions (PDF postscript)

Notes on Bayesian and Likelihood Inference (PDF postscript)

Notes on Basic Math Review PDF or postscript

Notes on Matrix Algebra PDF or postscript (These were actually written by Andrew Martin for a class of his at Washington University in St. Louis.)

Notes on Motivating Binary Response Regression Models PDF or postscript

Notes on the Newton-Raphson Algorithm for Function Optimization PDF or postscript

Notes on Interpreting Logistic Regression Coefficients PDF or postscript

Online Software Resources

The R Website

Official Documentation for R ("An Introduction to R" is especially useful)

User Contributed Documentation for R

R Examples

A very simple first R session here

Example of how to plot functions in R: plotting.R

Fitting Logistic Regression Models (Example 1)

Fitting Logistic Regression Models (Example 2)

Hypothesis Testing for Logistic Regression Models (Example 3)

Fitting and Interpreting an Ordered Logit Model (Example 4)

Fitting and Interpreting a Multinomial Logit Model (Example 5)

Fitting and Interpreting a Poisson Regression Model and a Negative Binomial Regression Model (Coming Soon) (Example 6)

Fitting and Interpreting Loglinear Models (Example 7)

Substantive Applications

Applications of Binary Logit/Probit

"Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952-1996", Larry M. Bartels, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 44, No. 1. (Jan., 2000), pp. 35-50. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0092-5853%28200001%2944%3A1%3C35%3APAVB1%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Z
"Social Inequalities in Reforming State Socialism: Between Redistribution and Markets in China", Victor Nee American Sociological Review, Vol. 56, No. 3. (Jun., 1991), pp. 267-282. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0003-1224%28199106%2956%3A3%3C267%3ASIIRSS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-A

Applications of Ordinal Logit/Probit

"The Public's Conditional Response to Supreme Court Decisions", Timothy R. Johnson and Andrew D. Martin, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 92, No. 2. (Jun., 1998), pp. 299-309. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0003-0554%28199806%2992%3A2%3C299%3ATPCRTS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-J
"Heterogeneity and Representation: The Senate and Free Trade", Michael Bailey and David W. Brady American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 42, No. 2. (Apr., 1998), pp. 524-544. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0092-5853%28199804%2942%3A2%3C524%3AHARTSA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-K

Applications of Multinomial Logit/Probit

"Voter Choice in Multi-Party Democracies: A Test of Competing Theories and Models", Kevin M. Quinn, Andrew D. Martin, and Andrew B. Whitford, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 43, No. 4. (Oct., 1999), pp. 1231-1247. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0092-5853%28199910%2943%3A4%3C1231%3AVCIMDA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-3
"The Revealed Preferences of a Government Bureaucracy: Theory", Daniel McFadden, The Bell Journal of Economics, Vol. 6, No. 2. (Autumn, 1975), pp. 401-416. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0361-915X%28197523%296%3A2%3C401%3ATRPOAG%3E2.0.CO%3B2-C
"The Revealed Preferences of a Government Bureaucracy: Empirical Evidence", Daniel McFadden, The Bell Journal of Economics, Vol. 7, No. 1. (Spring, 1976), pp. 55-72. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0361-915X%28197621%297%3A1%3C55%3ATRPOAG%3E2.0.CO%3B2-8

Applications of Poisson Regression

"Statistical Models for Political Science Event Counts: Bias in Conventional Procedures and Evidence for the Exponential Poisson Regression Model", Gary King American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 32, No. 3. (Aug., 1988), pp. 838-863. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0092-5853%28198808%2932%3A3%3C838%3ASMFPSE%3E2.0.CO%3B2-3
"The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: An Analysis of Daily Homicide Counts", Jeffrey Grogger Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 85, No. 410. (Jun., 1990), pp. 295-303. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0162-1459%28199006%2985%3A410%3C295%3ATDEOCP%3E2.0.CO%3B2-O

Applications of Log-Linear Models

"Some Exploratory Methods for Modeling Mobility Tables and Other Cross-Classified Data", Robert M. Hauser, Sociological Methodology, Vol. 11. (1980), pp. 413-458. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0081-1750%281980%2911%3C413%3ASEMFMM%3E2.0.CO%3B2-B
"Status, Autonomy, and Training in Occupational Mobility", Michael Hout, American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 89, No. 6. (May, 1984), pp. 1379-1409. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-9602%28198405%2989%3A6%3C1379%3ASAATIO%3E2.0.CO%3B2-K
"Five Decades of Educational Assortative Mating", Robert D. Mare, American Sociological Review, Vol. 56, No. 1. (Feb., 1991), pp. 15-32. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0003-1224%28199102%2956%3A1%3C15%3AFDOEAM%3E2.0.CO%3B2-R

Homework Assignments

Assignment 1 (Due before class, Oct. 18) PDF or postscript

Homework Assignment 2 (Due before class, Oct. 25)

Homework Assignment 3 (Due before class, Nov. 1)

Homework Assignment 4 (Due before class, Nov. 8)

Homework Assignment 5 (Due before class, Nov. 15)

Homework Assignment 6 (Due before class, Nov. 22)

Back to Kevin Quinn's home page