Adrian E. Raftery

Adrian is Professor of Statistics and Sociology and a faculty affiliate of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences and the Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology at the University of Washington. He works on the development of new statistical methods for the social, environmental and health sciences.

Working Group on Applied, Bayesian and Computational Statistics, Spring 2012
Working Group on Model-Based Clustering, Summer 2012, Guelph.

Recent Publications

(Full citations here.)

Bayesian model averaging

Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models.
Dynamic Logistic Regression and Dynamic Model Averaging for Binary Classification.

Population Projection and Estimation

Estimating the Total Fertility Rate from Multiple Imperfect Data Sources and Assessing its Uncertainty.
Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries.
bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate.

Probabilistic Weather Forecasting

Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting.
Locally Calibrated Probabilistic Temperature Forecasting Using Geostatistical Model Averaging and Local Bayesian Model Averaging.
Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging.

Gene expression data

Predicting relapse prior to transplantation in chronic myeloid leukemia by integrating expert knowledge and expression data.
Construction of regulatory networks using expression time-series data of a genotyped population.

Other

Fast Inference for the Latent Space Network Model Using a Case-Control Approximate Likelihood.
Estimating the Correlation in Bivariate Normal Data with Known Variances and Small Sample Sizes.
Assessing Uncertainty About the Benefits of Transportation Infrastructure Projects Using Bayesian Melding: Application to Seattle's Alaskan Way Viaduct.

These papers are being made available here to facilitate the timely dissemination of scholarly work; copyright and all related rights are retained by the copyright holders.

Updated May 14, 2012; last major update May 13, 2012