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Adrian E. Raftery: Publications

To appear | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | 1992 | 1991 | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | 1987 | 1986 | 1985 | 1984 | 1983 | 1982 | 1981 | 1980 | 1979

To appear

Raftery, A.E., Alkema, L. and Gerland, P. (in press). Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations. Statistical Science, to appear.

Sharrow, D.J., Clark, S.J. and Raftery, A.E. (in press). Modeling Age-Specific Mortality for Countries with Generalized HIV Epidemics. PLoS One, to appear.

Young, W.C., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (in press). Fast Bayesian Inference for Gene Regulatory Networks Using ScanBMA. BMC Systems Biology, to appear.

Celeux, G., Martin-Magniette, M.-L., Maugis-Rabusseau, C. and Raftery, A.E. (in press). Comparing Model Selection and Regularization Approaches to Variable Selection in Model-Based Clustering. Journal de la Société Française de Statistique, to appear.

Bao, L, Raftery, A.E. and Reddy, A. (in press). Estimating the Sizes of Populations at Risk of HIV Infection in Bangladesh Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. Statistics and Its Interface, to appear.

2014

Gerland, P., Raftery, A.E. [co-first authors]; Ševčíková , H., Li, N., Gu, D., Spoorenberg, T., Alkema, L., Fosdick, B.K., Chunn, J.L., Lalic, N., Bay, G., Buettner, T., Heilig, G.K. and Wilmoth, J. (2014). World Population Stabilization Unlikely This Century. Science 346:234-237. Abstract. Reprint. Full text.

Raftery, A.E., Lalic, N. and Gerland, P. (2014). Joint Probabilistic Projection of Female and Male Life Expectancy. Demographic Research, 30:795--822.

Fosdick, B.K. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Regional Probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by Modeling Between-Country Correlations. Demographic Research 30:1011--1034.

Lenkoski, A., Eicher, T.S. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models. Econometric Reviews, to appear. Earlier version.

2013

Wheldon, M., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2013). Estimating Demographic Parameters with Uncertainty from Fragmentary Data. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 108:96-110.

Raftery, A.E., Chunn, J.L., Gerland, P. and Ševčíková , H. (2013). Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries. Demography, 50:777-801.

Sloughter, J.M., Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A.E. (2013) Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging. Monthly Weather Review, 141:2107-2119.

2012

Raftery, A.E., Li. N., Ševčíková , H., Gerland, P. and Heilig, G.K. (2012). Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109:13915-13921.

Raftery, A.E., Niu, X., Hoff, P.D. and Yeung, K.Y. (2012). Fast Inference for the Latent Space Network Model Using a Case-Control Approximate Likelihood. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 21:909-919.

Fosdick, B.K. and Raftery, A.E. (2012). Estimating the Correlation in Bivariate Normal Data with Known Variances and Small Sample Sizes. The American Statistician, 66:34-41.

Lo, K., Raftery, A.E., Dombek, K., Zhu, J., Schadt, E.E., Bumgarner, R.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2012). Integrating External Biological Knowledge in the Construction of Regulatory Networks from Time-series Expression Data. BMC Systems Biology 6: article 101.

Bao, L., Salomon, J.A., Brown, T., Raftery, A.E. and Hogan, D. (2012). Modeling HIV/AIDS epidemics: revised approach in the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2011. Sexually Transmitted Infections 88:i3-i10.

McCormick, T.M., Raftery, A.E., Madigan, D. and Burd, R.S. (2012). Dynamic Logistic Regression and Dynamic Model Averaging for Binary Classification. Biometrics 68:23-30.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J. and Pelletier, F. (2012). Estimating the Total Fertility Rate from Multiple Imperfect Data Sources and Assessing its Uncertainty. Demographic Research 26:331-362.

Yeung, K.Y., Gooley, T.A., Zhang, A., Raftery, A.E., Radich, J.P. and Oehler, V.G. (2012). Predicting relapse prior to transplantation in chronic myeloid leukemia by integrating expert knowledge and expression data. Bioinformatics 28:823-830.

2011

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J., Pelletier, F., Buettner, T. and Helig, G. (2011). Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. Demography 48:815-839.

Ševčíková , H., Alkema, L. and Raftery, A.E. (2011). bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate. Journal of Statistical Software 43:1-29.

Kleiber, W., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2011). Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting. Journal of the American Statistical Association 106:1291-1303.

Kleiber, W., Raftery, A.E., Baars, J., Gneiting, T., Mass, C.F. and Grimit, E.P. (2011). Locally Calibrated Probabilistic Temperature Forecasting Using Geostatistical Model Averaging and Local Bayesian Model Averaging. Monthly Weather Review 139:2630-2649.

Chmielecki, R.M. and A.E. Raftery (2011). Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging. Monthly Weather Review 139:1626--1636.

Yeung, K.Y., Dombek, K.M., Lo, K., Mittler, J.E., Zhu, J., Schadt, E.E., Bumgarner, R.E. and Raftery, A.E. (2011). Construction of regulatory networks using expression time-series data of a genotyped population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108:19436-19441.

Fraley, C., Raftery, A.E., Gneiting, T., Sloughter, M. and Berrocal, V.J. (2011). Probabilistic Weather Forecasting in R. R Journal, 3:55-63.

Ševčíková , H., Raftery, A.E., and Waddell, P.A. (2011). Assessing Uncertainty About the Benefits of Transportation Infrastructure Projects Using Bayesian Melding: Application to Seattle's Alaskan Way Viaduct. Transportation Research Part A - Methodological 45:540-553.

2010

Raftery, A.E. and L. Bao. (2010). Estimating and Projecting Trends in HIV/AIDS Generalized Epidemics Using Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling. Biometrics 66:1162-1173.

Raftery, A.E., Karny, M., and Ettler, P. (2010). Online Prediction Under Model Uncertainty Via Dynamic Model Averaging: Application to a Cold Rolling Mill. Technometrics 52:52-66.

Berrocal, V.J., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2010). Probabilistic Weather Forecasting for Winter Road Maintenance. Journal of the American Statistical Association 105:522-537.

Brown, T., L. Bao, A.E. Raftery, J.A. Salomon, R.F. Baggaley, J. Stover, and P. Gerland (2010). Modelling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection package 2009. Sexually Transmitted Infections 86:i3--i10.

Bao, L. and A.E. Raftery (2010). A stochastic infection rate model for estimating and projecting national HIV prevalence rates. Sexually Transmitted Infections 86:i93--i99.

Steele, R.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2010). Performance of Bayesian Model Selection Criteria for Gaussian Mixture Models. In Frontiers of Statistical Decision Making and Bayesian Analysis (edited by M.-H. Chen et al), pages 113-130, New York: Springer. Earlier version.

Eicher, T., Papageorgiou, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2010). Determining Growth Determinants: Default Priors and Predictive Performance in Bayesian Model Averaging. Journal of Applied Econometrics 26:30-55.

Baudry, J.-P., Raftery, A.E., Celeux, G., Lo, K. and Gottardo, R. (2010). Combining Mixture Components for Clustering. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 19:332-353.

Bao, L., Gneiting, T., Grimit, E.P., Guttorp, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2010). Bias correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for ensemble forecasts of surface wind direction. Monthly Weather Review 138:1811-1821.

Sloughter, J.M., Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A.E. (2010). Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging. Journal of the American Statistical Association 105:25-35.

Murphy, T.B., Dean. N. and Raftery, A.E. (2010). Variable Selection and Updating In Model-Based Discriminant Analysis for High Dimensional Data with Food Authenticity Applications. Annals of Applied Statistics 4:396-421.

Dean, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2010). Latent Class Analysis Variable Selection. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 62:11-35.

Fraley, C., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2010). Calibrating Multi-Model Forecast Ensembles with Exchangeable and Missing Members using Bayesian Model Averaging. Monthly Weather Review 138:190-202.

Steele, R.J., Wang, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2010). Inference from multiple imputation for missing data using mixtures of normals. Statistical Methodology 7:351-365.

2009

Gottardo, R. and Raftery, A.E. (2009). Bayesian Robust Variable and Transformation Selection: A Unified Approach. Canadian Journal of Statistics, 37:1-20.

Gottardo, R. and Raftery, A.E. (2009). Markov chain Monte Carlo with mixtures of singular distributions. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 17:949-975.

Krivitsky, P., Handcock, M.S., Raftery, A.E. and Hoff, P. (2009). Representing Degree Distributions, Clustering, and Homophily in Social Networks With Latent Cluster Random Ects Models. Social Networks 31:204-213.

Mass, C.F., Joslyn, S., Pyle, J., Tewson, P., Gneiting, T., Raftery, A.E., Baars, J., Sloughter, J.M., Jones, D. and Fraley, C. (2009). PROBCAST: A Web-Based Portal to Mesoscale Probabilistic Forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90:1009-1014.

Oehler, V.G., Yeung, K.Y., Choi, Y.E., Bumgarner, R.E., Raftery, A.E. and Radich, J.P. (2009). The derivation of diagnostic markers of chronic myeloid leukemia progression from microarray data. Blood 114:3292-3298.

Annest, A., Bumgarner, R.E., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2009). Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging: a method for the application of survival analysis to high-dimensional microarray data. BMC Bioinformatics 10, article 72.

2008

Berrocal, V.J., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2008). Probabilistic quantitative precipitation field forecasting using a two-stage spatial model. Annals of Applied Statistics 2: 1170-1193.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Brown, T. (2008). Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in national HIV prevalence estimates. Sexually Transmitted Infections 84:i11-i16.

Brown, T., Salomon, J.A., Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Gouws, E. (2008). Progress and challenges in modelling country-level HIV/AIDS epidemics: The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2007. Sexually Transmitted Infections 84:i5-i10.

Chu, V.T., Gottardo, R., Raftery, A.E., Bumgarner, R.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2008). MeV+R: using MeV as a graphical user interface for Bioconductor applications in microarray analysis. Genome Biology 7: article R118.

2007

Handcock, M.S., Raftery, A.E. and Tantrum, J. (2007). Model-based clustering for social networks (with Discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 170, 301-354.

Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Raftery, A.E. (2007). Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 69, 243-268.

Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A.E. (2007). Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 102, 359-378.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Clark, S.J. (2007). Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding. Annals of Applied Statistics, 1, 229-248.

Oh, M.-S. and Raftery, A.E. (2007). Model-based Clustering with Dissimilarities: A Bayesian Approach. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 16, 559-585.

Berrocal, V., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2007). Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 1386-1402.

Wilson, L.J., Beauregard, S., Raftery, A.E. and Verret, R. (2007). Calibrated Surface Temperature Forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction y stem Using Bayesian Model Averaging (with Discussion). Monthly Weather Review, 135, 1364-1385. Discussion pages 4226-4236.

Sloughter, J.M., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2007). Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 3209-3220.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2007). Bayesian Regularization for Normal Mixture Estimation and Model-Based Clustering. Journal of Classification, 24, 155-181.

Raftery, A.E., Newton, M.A., Satagopan, J.M. and Krivitsky, P. (2007). Estimating the Integrated Likelihood via Posterior Simulation Using the Harmonic Mean Identity (with Discussion). In Bayesian Statistics 8 (edited by J.M. Bernardo et al.), pp. 1-45, Oxford University Press.

Sevcikova, H., Raftery, A.E. and Waddell, P. (2007). Assessing Uncertainty in Urban Simulations Using Bayesian Melding. Transportation Research B, 41, 652-669.

Fraley C. and Raftery A.E. (2007). Model-based methods of classification: Using the mclust software in chemometrics. Journal of Statistical Software, 18, paper i06.

2006

Raftery, A.E. and Dean, N. (2006). Variable Selection for Model-Based Clustering. Journal of the American Statistical Assocation, 101, 168-178.

Gottardo, R., Raftery, A.E., Yeung, K.Y. and Bumgarner, R.E. (2006). Robust Estimation of cDNA Microarray Intensities with Replicates. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101, 30-40.

Gottardo, R., Raftery, A.E., Yeung, K.Y. and Bumgarner, R.E. (2006). Bayesian Robust Inference for Differential Gene Expression in cDNA Microarrays with Multiple Samples. Biometrics, 62, 10-18.

Steele, R., Raftery, A.E. and Emond, M. (2006). Computing Normalizing Constants for Finite Mixture Models via Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling (IMIS). Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 15, 712-734.

Forbes, F., Peyrard, N., Fraley, C., Georgian-Smith, D., Goldhaber, D.M., and Raftery, A.E. (2006). Model-Based Region-of-Interest Selection in Dynamic Breast MRI. Journal of Computer Assisted Tomography, 30, 675-687.

Tewson, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2006). Real-Time Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Website. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 7, 880-882.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2006). Some applications of model-based clustering in chemistry. R News, 6, no. 3, 17-23.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2006). Model-based microarray image analysis. R News, 6, no. 5, 60-63.

Czado, C.C. and Raftery, A.E. (2006). ``Choosing the Link function and Accounting for Link Uncertainty in Generalized Linear Models using Bayes Factors.'' Statistical Papers, 47, 419-442. Earlier technical report.

2005

Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A.E. (2005). Weather forecasting with ensemble methods. Science, 310, 248-249.

Fraley, C., Raftery, A.E. and Wehrens, R. (2005). Incremental Model-Based Clustering for Large Datasets with Small Clusters. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 14, 529-546.

Raftery, A.E., Painter, I. and Volinsky, C.T. (2005). BMA: An R package for Bayesian Model Averaging. R News, volume 5, number 2, 2-8.

Murtagh, F., Raftery, A.E., and J.L. Starck (2005). Bayesian inference for multiband image segmentation via model-based cluster trees. Image and Vision Computing, 23, 587-596.

Dean, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2005). ``Normal uniform mixture differential gene expression detection for cDNA microarrays.'' BMC Bioinformatics, 6, 173. (doi:10.1186/1471-2105-6-173).

Li, Q., Fraley, C., Bumgarner, R.E., Yeung, K.Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2005). ``Donuts, Scratches and Blanks: Robust Model-Based Segmentation of Microarray Images.'' Bioinformatics, 21(12), 2875-2882 (doi:10.1093/bioinformatics/bti447).

Yeung, K.Y., Bumgarner, R.E. and Raftery, A.E. (2005). `` Bayesian Model Averaging: Development of an improved multi-class, gene selection and classification tool for microarray data.'' Bioinformatics, 21(10), 2394-2402 (doi:10.1093/bioinformatics/bti319).

Raftery, A.E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M. (2005). Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 1155-1174.

Gneiting, T., Raftery, A.E., Westveld, A. and Goldman, T. (2005). Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 1098-1118.

Fuentes, M. and Raftery, A.E. (2005). Model evaluation and spatial interpolation by Bayesian combination of observations with outputs from numerical models. Biometrics, 66, 36--45.

Walsh, D.C.I. and Raftery, A.E. (2005). Classification of mixtures of spatial point processes via partial Bayes factors. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 14, 139-154.

2004

Gel, Y., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2004). Calibrated probabilistic mesoscale weather field forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) method (with Discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association, 99, 575-590.
Earlier technical report version with color figures.

Wehrens, R., Buydens, L.M.C., Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2004). Model-Based Clustering for Image Segmentation and Large Datasets Via Sampling. Journal of Classification, 21, 231-253.

2003

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2003). Enhanced model-based clustering, density estimation and discriminant analysis software: MCLUST. Journal of Classification, 20, 263-286.

Bates, S., Raftery, A.E. and Cullen, A.C. (2003). Bayesian Uncertainty Assessment in Deterministic Models for Environmental Risk Assessment. Environmetrics, 14, 355-371.

Raftery, A.E. and Zheng, Y. (2003). Discussion: Performance of Bayesian Model Averaging. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 98, 931-938.

2002

Hoff, P., Raftery, A.E. and Handcock, M.S. (2002). Latent Space Approaches to Social Network Analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97, 1090-1098.

Wang, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2002). Nearest Neighbor Variance Estimation (NNVE): Robust Covariance Estimation via Nearest Neighbor Cleaning (with Discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97, 994-1019.

Stanford, D.C. and Raftery, A.E. (2002). Approximate Bayes factors for image segmentation: The Pseudolikelihood Information Criterion (PLIC). IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 24, 1517-1520.

Byers, S.D. and Raftery, A.E. (2002). Bayesian Estimation and Segmentation of Spatial Point Processes using Voronoi Tilings. In Spatial Cluster Modelling (A.G. Lawson and D. G.T. Denison, eds.), London: Chapman and Hall/CRC Press. Earlier technical report version. (Postscript).

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2002). Model-Based Clustering, Discriminant Analysis, and Density Estimation. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97, 611-631.

Berchtold, A. and Raftery, A.E. (2002). The Mixture Transition Distribution (MTD) model for high-order Markov chains and non-Gaussian time series. Statistical Science, 17, 328-356.

Walsh, D.C.I and Raftery, A.E. (2002). Detecting mines in minefields with linear characteristics. Technometrics, 44, 34-44.

Walsh, D.C.I. and Raftery, A.E. (2002). Accurate and Efficient Curve Detection in Images: The Importance Sampling Hough Transform. Pattern Recognition, 35, 1421-1431.

Hoeting, J.A., Raftery, A.E. and Madigan, D. (2002). Bayesian variable and transformation selection in linear regression. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 11, 485-507.

2001

Raftery, A.E. (2001). Statistics in Sociology, 1950--2000: A Selective Review. Sociological Methodology, 31, 1-45.

Yeung K.Y., Fraley C., Murua A, Raftery, A.E. and Ruzzo, W.L. (2001). Model-based clustering and data transformations for gene expression data. Bioinformatics, 17, 977-987.

Oh, M.-S. and Raftery, A.E. (2001). Bayesian Multidimensional Scaling and Choice of Dimension. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96, 1031-1044.

Viallefont, V., Raftery, A.E. and Richardson, S. (2001). Variable selection and Bayesian model averaging in epidemiological case-control studies. Statistics in Medicine, 20, 3215-3230.

2000

Merli, G. and Raftery, A.E. (2000). Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China's population policies. Demography, 37, 109--126.

Raftery, A.E. (2000). Statistics in Sociology, 1950--2000: A Vignette. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95, 654-661.

Poole, D.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2000). Inference for deterministic simulation models: The Bayesian melding approach. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95, 1244-1255. Earlier, more complete technical report version (ps).

Stanford, D.C. and Raftery, A.E. (2000). Principal curve clustering with noise. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Analysis, 22, 601-609.

Volinsky, C.T. and Raftery, A.E. (2000). Bayesian information criterion for censored survival models. Biometrics, 56, 256--262.

1999

Biblarz, T.J. and Raftery, A.E. (1999). Family structure, educational attainment and socioeconomic success: Rethinking the Pathology of Matriarchy'. American Journal of Sociology, 105, 321-365.

Hoeting, J.A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A.E. and Volinsky, C.T. (1999). Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial (with Discussion). Statistical Science, 14, 382--401. [Corrected version.] Correction: vol. 15, pp. 193-195. The corrected version is available at http://www.stat.washington.edu/www/research/online/hoeting1999.pdf. If cited, the corrected version should also be referenced, as here.

Raftery, A.E. (1999). Bayes factors and BIC - Comment on "A critique of the Bayesian information criterion for model selection". Sociological Methods and Research, 27, 411-427.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (1999). MCLUST: Software for Model-Based Cluster Analysis. Journal of Classification, 16, 297-306.

Lewis, S.M. and Raftery, A.E. (1999). Comparing explanations of fertility decline using event history models and unobserved heterogeneity. Sociological Methods and Research, 28, 35-60.

Campbell, J.G., Fraley, C., Stanford, D., Murtagh, F. and Raftery, A.E. (1999). Model-based methods for textile fault detection. International Journal of Imaging Science and Technology, 10, 339-346.

Forbes, F. and Raftery, A.E. (1999). Bayesian morphology: Fast unsupervised Bayesian image analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 555-568.

Poole, D., Givens, G.H. and Raftery, A.E. (1999). A proposed stock assessment method and its application to bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus. Fishery Bulletin, 97, 144-152. Earlier technical report version.

1998

Mukherjee, S., Feigelson, E.D., Babu, G.J., Murtagh, F., Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (1998). Three types of gamma ray bursts. Astrophysical Journal, 508, 314-327.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (1998). How many clusters? Which clustering methods? Answers via model-based cluster analysis. Computer Journal, 41, 578-588.

Byers, S.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1998). Nearest neighbor clutter removal for estimating features in spatial point processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 93, 577-584.

Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1998). Estimating bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus, population size and rate of increase from the 1993 census. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 93, 451-463.

Dasgupta, A. and Raftery, A.E. (1998). Detecting features in spatial point processes with clutter via model-based clustering. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 93, 294-302.

1997

Biblarz, T., Raftery, A.E. and Bucur, A. (1997). Family structure and social mobility. Social Forces, 75, 1319-1339.

Campbell, J.G., Fraley, C., Murtagh, F. and Raftery, A.E. (1997). Linear flaw detection in woven textiles using model-based clustering. Pattern Recognition Letters, 18, 1539-1548.

Petrone, S. and Raftery, A.E. (1997). A note on the Dirichlet process prior in Bayesian nonparametric inference with partial exchangeability. Statistics and Probability Letters, 36, 69-83.

Volinsky, C.T., Madigan, D., Raftery, A.E. and Kronmal, R.A. (1997). Bayesian model averaging in proportional hazard models: Assessing stroke risk. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C---Applied Statistics, 46, 433-448.

DiCiccio, T.J., Kass, R.E., Raftery, A.E. and Wasserman, L. (1997). Computing Bayes Factors by Combining Simulation and Asymptotic Approximations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 92, 903-915.

Lewis, S.M. and Raftery, A.E. (1997) Estimating Bayes factors via posterior simulation with the Laplace-Metropolis estimator. Journal of the American Statistical Assocation, 92, 648-655.

Bensmail, H., Celeux, G., Raftery, A.E. and Robert, C. (1997). Inference in model-based cluster analysis. Statistics and Computing, 7, 1-10.

Raftery, A.E., Madigan, D. and Hoeting, J.A. (1997). Bayesian model averaging for regression models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 92, 179-191.

1996

Madigan, D., Raftery, A.E., Volinsky, C.T., and Hoeting, J.A. (1996). Bayesian model averaging. In Integrating Multiple Learned Models, (IMLM-96), P. Chan, S. Stolfo, and D. Wolpert (Eds.), pp. 77-83.

Hoeting, J.A., Raftery, A.E. and Madigan, D. (1996). A method for simultaneous variable selection and outlier identification in linear regression. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 22, 251-270.

Le, N.D., Martin, R.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1996). Modeling outliers, bursts and flat stretches in time series using mixture transition distribution (MTD) models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, 1504-1515.

Givens, G.H., Zeh, J.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1996). Implementing the current management regime for aboriginal subsistence whaling to establish a catch limit for the Bering--Chukchi--Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 46, 493--501.

Raftery, A.E. (1996). Approximate Bayes factors and accounting for model uncertainty in generalized linear models. Biometrika, 83, 251-266.

Givens, G.H. and Raftery, A.E. (1996). Local adaptive importance sampling for multivariate densities with strong nonlinear relationships. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, 132-141.

Le, N.D., Raftery, A.E. and Martin, R.D. (1996). Robust order selection in autoregressive models using robust Bayes factors. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, 123-131.

Kahn, M.J. and Raftery, A.E. (1996). Discharge rates of Medicare stroke patients to skilled nursing facilities: Bayesian logistic regression with unobserved heterogeneity. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, 29-41.

Raftery, A.E., Lewis, S.M., Aghajanian, A. and Kahn, M.J. (1996). Event history analysis of World Fertility Survey data. Mathematical Population Studies, 6, 129-153. Earlier technical report version (ps).

Raftery, A.E. and Richardson, S. (1996). Model selection for generalized linear models via GLIB, with application to epidemiology. In Bayesian Biostatistics (D.A. Berry and D.K. Stangl, eds.), New York: Marcel Dekker, pp. 321--354. Earlier version (ps).

Raftery, A.E. and Lewis, S.M. (1996). Implementing MCMC. In Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice(W.R. Gilks, D.J. Spiegelhalter and S. Richardson, eds.), London: Chapman and Hall, pp. 115-130. Earlier version (ps).

Raftery, A.E. (1996). Hypothesis testing and model selection. In Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice(W.R. Gilks, D.J. Spiegelhalter and S. Richardson, eds.), London: Chapman and Hall, pp. 163--188. Earlier version (ps).

1995

Madigan, D., Gavrin, J. and Raftery, A.E. (1995). Enhancing the predictive performance of Bayesian graphical models. Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 24, 2271-2292. Earlier technical report version (ps): Technical Report no. 270, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, February 1994.

Givens, G.H., Zeh, J.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1995). Assessment of the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales using the BALEEN II model in a Bayesian synthesis framework. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 45, 345-364.

Givens, G.H., Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1995). Response to comments by Butterworth and Punt in SC/46/AS2 on the Bayesian synthesis approach. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 45, 325-330.

Raftery, A.E., Lewis, S.M. and Aghajanian, A. (1995). Demand or ideation? Evidence from the Iranian marital fertility decline. Demography, 32, 159-182.

Raftery, A.E., Madigan, D. and Volinsky, C.T. (1995). Accounting for model uncertainty in survival analysis improves predictive performance (with Discussion). In Bayesian Statistics 5 (J.M. Bernardo, J.O. Berger, A.P. Dawid and A.F.M. Smith, eds.), Oxford University Press, pp. 323-349. Earlier version (ps).

Raftery, A.E. (1995). Bayesian model selection in social research (with Discussion). Sociological Methodology, 25, 111-196.
Discussion: Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research, by A. Gelman and D. B. Rubin.
Discussion: Better rules for better decisions, by R. M. Hauser.
Rejoinder: Model selection is unavoidable in social research, by A. E. Raftery.

Kass, R.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1995). Bayes factors. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90, 773-795.

Raftery, A.E., Givens, G.H. and Zeh, J.E. (1995). Inference from a deterministic population dynamics model for bowhead whales (with Discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90, 402-430. Rejoinder. [The 1995 JASA-Applications and Case Studies Invited Paper.]

1994

Raftery, A.E. (1994). Change point and change curve modeling in stochastic processes and spatial statistics. Journal of Applied Statistical Science, 1, 403-424. Earlier technical report version.

Madigan, D.M. and Raftery, A.E. (1994). Model selection and accounting for model uncertainty in graphical models using Occam's Window. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89, 1335-1346.

Givens, G.H., Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1994). A reweighting approach for sensitivity analysis within the Bayesian synthesis framework for population assessment modeling. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 44, 377-384.

Taplin, R.H. and Raftery, A.E. (1994). Analysis of agricultural field trials in the presence of outliers and fertility jumps. Biometrics, 50, 764-781.

Raftery, A.E. and Tavare, S. (1994). Estimation and modelling repeated patterns in high-order Markov chains with the mixture transition distribution (MTD) model. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C - Applied Statistics, 43, 179-200.

Newton, M.A. and Raftery, A.E. (1994). Approximate Bayesian inference by the weighted likelihood bootstrap (with Discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 56, 3-48.

1993

Biblarz, T.J. and Raftery, A.E. (1993). The effects of family disruption on social mobility. American Sociological Review, 58, 97-109.

Madigan, D., Raftery, A.E., York, J.C., Bradshaw, J.M., and Almond, R.G. (1993). Strategies for graphical model selection. Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, pp. 361-366. Earlier version (ps).

Givens, G.H., Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1993). Benefits of a Bayesian approach for synthesizing multiple sources of evidence and uncertainty linked by a deterministic model. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 43, 495-500.

Raftery, A.E. and Schweder, T. (1993). Inference about the ratio of two parameters, with application to whale censusing. The American Statistician, 47, 259-264.

Raftery, A.E. (1993). Bayesian model selection in structural equation models. In Testing Stuctural Equation Models (K.A. Bollen and J.S. Long, eds.), Beverly Hills: Sage, pp. 163-180. Earlier version.

Raftery, A.E. and Hout, M (1993). Maximally maintained inequality: Expansion, reform and opportunity in Irish education, 1921-1975. Sociology of Education, 66, 41-62.

Grunwald, G.K., Guttorp, P. and Raftery, A.E. (1993). Prediction rules for exponential family state-space models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 55, 937-943.

Banfield, J.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1993). Model-based Gaussian and non-Gaussian clustering. Biometrics, 49, 803-821.

Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1993). Estimation of Bowhead Whale, Balaena mysticetus, population size (with Discussion). In Bayesian Statistics in Science and Technology: Case Studies (C. Gatsonis et al., eds.), New York: Springer-Verlag, pp. 163-240.

Grunwald, G.K., Raftery, A.E. and Guttorp, P. (1993). Time series of continuous proportions. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 55, 103-116.

Hout, M., Raftery, A.E. and Bell, E.O. (1993). Making the grade: Educational stratification in the United States, 1925-1989. In Persistent Inequality: Changing Educational Attainment in Thirteen Countries, (Y. Shavit and P. Bloesfeld, eds.), Boulder: Westview Press, pp. 25-50.

1992

Raftery, A.E. and Lewis, S.M. (1992). How many iterations in the Gibbs sampler? In Bayesian Statistics 4 (J.M. Bernardo et al., editors), Oxford University Press, pp. 763-773. Earlier version (ps).

Banfield, J.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1992). Ice floe identification in satellite images using mathematical morphology and clustering about principal curves. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 8, 7-16.

1991

Dwyer, T.P. and Raftery, A.E. (1991). Industrial accidents are produced by the social relations of work: A sociological theory of industrial accidents. Applied Ergonomics, 22, 167-178.

1990

Zeh, J.E., George, J.C., Raftery, A.E. and Carroll, G.M. (1990). Rate of increase, 1978-1988, in the Bering Sea stock of bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus, estimated from ice-based census data. Marine Mammal Science, 7, 105-122.

Zeh, J.E., Raftery, A.E. and Yang, Q. (1990). Assessment of tracking algorithm performance and its effect on population estimates using bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus, identified visually and acoustically in 1986 off Point Barrow, Alaska. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 40, 411-421.

Raftery, A.E., Zeh, J.E., Yang, Q. and Styer, P.E. (1990). Bayes empirical Bayes interval estimation of bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus, population size based upon the 1986 combined visual and acoustic census off Point Barrow, Alaska. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 40, 393-409.

Stephen, E., Raftery, A.E. and Dowding, P. (1990). Forecasting spore concentrations: A time series approach. International Journal of Biometeorology, 34, 87-89.

Raftery, A.E. and Thompson, E.A. (1990). What is the probability of a serious nuclear reactor accident? Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 36, 31-34.

1989

Raftery, A.E. (1989). Are ozone exceedance rates decreasing? Statistical Science, 4, 378-381.

O'Cinneide, C.A. and Raftery, A.E. (1989). A continuous multivariate exponential distribution that is multivariate phase type. Statistics and Probability Letters, 7, 323-325.

Haslett, J. and Raftery, A.E. (1989). Space-time modelling with long-memory dependence: Assessing Ireland's wind power resource (with Discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C - Applied Statistics, 38, 1-50.

1988

Zeh, J.E., Turet, P., Gentleman, R. and Raftery, A.E. (1988). Population size estimation for the bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus, based on 1985 and 1986 visual and acoustic data. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 38, 349-364.

Raftery, A.E., Turet, P. and Zeh, J.E. (1988). A parametric empirical Bayes approach to interval estimation of bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus, population size. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 38, 377-388.

Raftery, A.E. and Thompson, E.A. (1988). How many nuclear reactor accidents? Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 29, 347-350.

Raftery, A.E. (1988). Inference and prediction for the binomial N parameter: A hierarchical Bayes approach. Biometrika, 75, 223-228.

Raftery, A.E. (1988). Analysis of a simple debugging model. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C - Applied Statistics, 37, 12-22.

1987

Raftery, A.E. (1987). Inference and prediction for a general order statistic model with unknown population size. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82, 1163-1168.

Martin, R.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1987). Robustness, computation, and non-Euclidean models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82, 1044-1050.

1986

Akman, V.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1986). Bayes factors for non-homogeneous Poisson processes with vague prior information. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 48, 322-329.

Raftery, A.E. (1986). A note on Bayes factors for log-linear contingency table models with vague prior information. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 48, 249-250.

Akman, V.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1986). Asymptotic inference for a change-point Poisson process. Annals of Statistics, 14, 1583-1590.

Raftery, A.E. and Akman, V.E. (1986). Bayesian analysis of a Poisson process with a change-point. Biometrika, 73, 85-89.

Raftery, A.E. (1986). Choosing models for cross-classifications. American Sociological Review, 51, 145-146.

1985

Raftery, A.E. (1985). A model for high-order Markov chains. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 47, 528-539.

Raftery, A.E. (1985). Some properties of a new continuous bivariate exponential distribution. Statistics and Decisions, Supplement Issue No. 2, 53-58.

Raftery, A.E. (1985). Invited review: Time series analysis. European Journal of Operational Research, 20, 127-137.

Raftery, A.E. and Hout, M. (1985). Does Irish education approach the meritocratic ideal? A logistic analysis. Economic and Social Review, 16, 115-140.

Raftery, A.E. (1985). Social mobility measures for cross-national comparisons. Quality and Quantity, 19, 167-182.

1984

Murtagh, F. and Raftery, A.E. (1984). Fitting straight lines to point patterns. Pattern Recognition, 17, 479-483.

Raftery, A.E. (1984). A continuous multivariate exponential distribution. Communications in Statistics, A13, 947-965.

1983

Raftery, A.E. (1983). Comment on ``Gaps and glissandos . . .''. American Sociological Review, 48, 581-583.

1982

Raftery, A.E., Haslett, J. and McColl, E. (1982). Wind power: a space-time process? In Time series analysis: theory and practice 2 (O.D. Anderson, ed.), North-Holland, pp. 191-202.

Raftery, A.E. (1982). Generalised non-normal time series models. In Time series analysis: theory and practice 1 (O.D. Anderson, ed.), North-Holland, pp. 621-640.

1981

Fuchs, C., Broniatowski, M. and Raftery, A.E. (1981). Etude de la division cellulaire dans le meristeme plan de la feuille du Tropaeolum peregrinum L. I. La distribution des mitoses dans une zone reduite de panenchyme pallisadique releve-t-elle du hasard? Comptes rendus de l'Academie des Sciences de Paris, serie III, 292, 347-352.

Fuchs, C., Broniatowski, M. and Raftery, A.E. (1981). Etude de la division cellulaire dans le meristeme plan de la feuille de Tropaeolum peregrinum L. II. Structures presentees par la distribution des mitoses. Comptes rendus de l'Academie des Sciences de Paris, serie III, 292, 385-387.

1980

Raftery, A.E. (1980). Estimation efficace pour un processus autoregressif exponentiel a densite discontinue. Publications de l'Institut de Statistique des Universites de Paris, 25, 64-91.

Raftery, A.E., Shier, P. and Obilade, T. (1980). Domestic space heating and solar energy in Ireland. International Journal of Energy Research, 4, 31-39.

1979

Raftery, A.E. (1979). Un probleme de ficelle. Comptes rendus de l'Academie des Sciences de Paris, serie A, 289,703-705.

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Updated November 11, 2014.

Copyright 2005-2014 by Adrian E. Raftery; all rights reserved.