Adrian Raftery: Sociology and Demography Research

Population Projection

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Brown, T. (2008). ``Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in national HIV prevalence estimates.'' Working Paper no. 82, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Clark, S.J. (2007). Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding. Annals of Applied Statistics, 1, 229-248.

ky, P., Handcock, M.S., Raftery, A.E. and Hoff. P. (2007). ``Representing Degree Distributions, Clustering, and Homophily in Social Networks with Latent Cluster Random Effects Models.'' Technical Report no. 517, Department of Statistics, University of Washington. Also Working Paper no. 77, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington.

Handcock, M.S., Raftery, A.E. and Tantrum, J. (2007). Model-based clustering for social networks (with Discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 170, 301-354.

Hoff, P., Raftery, A.E. and Handcock, M.S. (2002). Latent Space Approaches to Social Network Analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97, 1090-1098.

Fertility

Merli, G. and Raftery, A.E. (2000). Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China's population policies. Demography, 37, 109--126.

Lewis, S.M. and Raftery, A.E. (1999). Comparing explanations of fertility decline using event history models and unobserved heterogeneity. Sociological Methods and Research, 28, 35-60.

Raftery, A.E., Lewis, S.M., Aghajanian, A. and Kahn, M.J. (1996). Event history analysis of World Fertility Survey data. Mathematical Population Studies, 6, 129-153. Earlier technical report version (Postscript).

Raftery, A.E., Lewis, S.M. and Aghajanian, A. (1995). Demand or ideation? Evidence from the Iranian marital fertility decline. Demography, 32, 159-182.

Social Mobility and Family Structure

Biblarz, T.J. and Raftery, A.E. (1999). Family structure, educational attainment and socioeconomic success: Rethinking the Pathology of Matriarchy'. American Journal of Sociology, 105, 321-365.

Biblarz, T., Raftery, A.E. and Bucur, A. (1997). Family structure and social mobility. Social Forces, 75, 1319-1339.

Biblarz, T.J. and Raftery, A.E. (1993). The effects of family disruption on social mobility. American Sociological Review, 58, 97-109.

Raftery, A.E. (1985). Social mobility measures for cross-national comparisons. Quality and Quantity, 19, 167-182.

Raftery, A.E. (1983). Comment on ``Gaps and glissandos . . .''. American Sociological Review, 48, 581-583.

Educational Stratification

Raftery, A.E. and Hout, M (1993). Maximally maintained inequality: Expansion, reform and opportunity in Irish education, 1921-1975. Sociology of Education, 66, 41-62.

Hout, M., Raftery, A.E. and Bell, E.O. (1993). Making the grade: Educational stratification in the United States, 1925-1989. In Persistent Inequality: Changing Educational Attainment in Thirteen Countries, (Y. Shavit and P. Bloesfeld, eds.), Boulder: Westview Press, pp. 25-50.

Raftery, A.E. and Hout, M. (1985). Does Irish education approach the meritocratic ideal? A logistic analysis. Economic and Social Review, 16, 115-140.

Quantitative Methodology

(Much of my statistical research is relevant to sociology and motivated by it, particularly the work on Bayesian model averaging and model selection, but here I include mostly papers published in the sociological literature.)

Raftery, A.E. (2001). Statistics in Sociology, 1950--2000: A Selective Review. Sociological Methodology, 31, 1-45.

Raftery, A.E. (2000). Statistics in Sociology, 1950--2000: A Vignette. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95, 654-661.

Raftery, A.E. (1995). Bayesian model selection in social research (with Discussion). Sociological Methodology, 25, 111-196.
Discussion: Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research, by A. Gelman and D. B. Rubin.
Discussion: Better rules for better decisions, by R. M. Hauser.
Rejoinder: Model selection is unavoidable in social research, by A. E. Raftery.

Raftery, A.E. (1993). Bayesian model selection in structural equation models. In Testing Stuctural Equation Models (K.A. Bollen and J.S. Long, eds.), Beverly Hills: Sage, pp. 163-180. Earlier version.

Raftery, A.E. (1986). Choosing models for cross-classifications. American Sociological Review, 51, 145-146.

Industrial Accidents

Dwyer, T.P. and Raftery, A.E. (1991). Industrial accidents are produced by the social relations of work: A sociological theory of industrial accidents. Applied Ergonomics, 22, 167-178.

Updated May 22, 2008