Seminar Details

Seminar Details


Nov 3

3:30 pm

Probabilistic Rainfall Forecasting

Max Little


University of Oxford

Rain is vital to life yet potentially extremely destructive and forecasting is critical to water management. Rain is a difficult atmospheric variable to predict, and traditional deterministic “point” forecasts of rainfall misrepresent the uncertainty associated with the methods by which rainfall is measured, modelled and predicted. A recognition amongst meteorologists is that probabilistic forecasts, that is, issuing a probability density as a forecast rather than a deterministic point value, is desirable. In this talk I will describe the efforts of meteorologists to produce probabilistic forecasts, the statistical methods that have been used, and recent statistical attempts to forecast daily rainfall totals. I will also describe the special mathematical techniques that have been developed to quantify probabilistic forecast performance in order to set up objective comparisons between competing methods.