Seminar Details

Seminar Details


Tuesday

Jun 3

2:00 pm

Combining Probability Forecasts

Roopesh Ranjan

General Exam

University of Washington - Department of Statistics

We propose a method for combining probability forecasts from different sources. The commonly used method of linearly combining probability forecasts has limitations, in that a weighted combination of distinct calibrated forecasts is necessarily uncalibrated. In view of this, we propose a recalibration method. We illustrate our findings with simulation examples and a case study on operational probability of precipitation forecasts.