University of Washington - Department of Statistics
The United Nations Population Division produces estimates and projections of the total fertility rate for all countries in the world every two years. For countries with fertility above replacement level, future levels are projected by choosing one out of three scenarios describing the pace of future fertility decline.
I will discuss a Bayesian hierarchical model for producing country-specific projections of the total fertility rate, and assessing the uncertainty in these predictions. Results for various countries will be presented.