STAT 394 - Home Page

STAT 394, Probability I
Autumn Quarter 2001

Prerequisite: 2.0 in MATH 126,129 or 136.

Class Times: MWF, 10:30am - 11:20am
Room: FTR 034
Text: Introduction to Probability, Douglas G. Kelly (Required). I expect to cover Chapters 1-3.

Instructor: Matthew Stephens
Office: Padelford C315, Tel 543-4302
Office Hours: M2-3, Tu1-2, or by appointment
e-mail: stephens@stat.washington.edu

Grader: Alex Morozov
e-mail: morozov@u.washington.edu

Final Grades

Final grades are available Here

Announcements

Class Handouts

Here are some of the handouts that I've distributed in class.

Conditional Probability Examples

Poisson Process Examples

Example Midterm

Midterm

Cumulative Distribution Functions

Comparison of continuous and discrete distributions

Example finals questions

GRADE RECORD

Here are the grades I have on record for you up to and including the midterm. Despite my best efforts, there is always the chance that a grade has been misrecorded by either me or the grader, so do check and let me know of any apparent discrepancies. The grades are listed by the last 5 numbers of your student number. The first column of each pair gives you score in marks, and the second column gives your score as a percentage. The final column gives a combined weighted average score. As a guide, if I had been assigning grades based purely on the midterm, a score of about 20 would have been a 3.0.

ROOM CHANGE

As of Friday Oct 12th, the class will be moving to FTR 034, to accomodate the number of people wanting to take the class.

There will be no class on Wednesday November 21st.

Outline:

An introductory class in Probability, which forms the first quarter of a two or three quarter sequence (394-395-396). Although the course contains a theoretical component, we will place more emphasis on applications, and on turning descriptions of real-life situations into calculation problems. For example, by the end of the class students should be able to:

describe uses of probability in everyday life.

distinguish between frequentist and subjective interpretations of probability.

calculate probabilities for winning lotteries and being dealt given hands of cards.

apply Bayes's theorem to calculate conditional probabilities.

use Poisson and Binomial distributions to model natural phenomena.

Exams

There will be a mid-term exam in class on Wednesday November 7. It covers Sections 1.1, 1.2 and Chapter 2 of the text, and constitutes 30% of your grade. You will be allowed a single page of notes (both sides, any size). The final exam will be given as scheduled on Friday December 14, 8:30-10:20am. It is comprehensive, and will be 40% of your grade. Again, a single page of notes will be allowed.

Homeworks

Homeworks are due on Wednesdays at the beginning of class, and will account for 30% of the final grade, with your worst homework being ignored. See Homeworks for lists of problems and due dates.

Problem Sessions

Each week we will work problems in class. The problem sessions are intended to develop the ability to turn descriptions of situations into calculation problems. Many of the problems will involve genetic examples: we will learn some basic genetic ideas and terminology (no previous knowledge of genetics will be assumed). Here are the notes and examples in genetics that we will use in Problems classes. Please print out a copy and bring them to Problems classes. Note that these notes are from a previous year of the class run by Elizabeth Thompson - so some of the notes have dates on that do not relate to this year!

Some exam questions will be like problem session questions, and others more like homework problems.

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