TIES North American Regional Meeting

University of Washington, Seattle

June 19 - June 21, 2007






1:00-1:15           Welcome

                           (HUB 200)

         David Brillinger, TIES President

         Peter Guttorp, Organizing Committee Chair



1:15-3:15           Inference for mechanistic models

                           (HUB 200)

         Chair: Joel Reynolds, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Anchorage


         Tilmann Gneiting, University  of Washington

         Probabilistic weather forecasting


         Mark Berliner, Ohio State University

         Physical statistical environmental modeling


         Derek Bingham, Simon Fraser University

         Experiment design for models with field and computer trials



3:15-3:45           Coffee break



3:45-4:45           Keynote lecture I

                           (HUB 200)

         Chair: Jim Zidek, University of British Columbia


         Paul Switzer, Stanford University

         Regional time trends in climate model simulations



5:30-7:30           Posters & Opening mixer

                           (Walker-Ames Room)


         Celeste Yang, Kansas State University

         A study of the calibration-inverse prediction problem for a mixed model


         Laurie Ainsworth, Simon Fraser University

         Zero-inflated spatial models


         Soren E. Larsen, Aarhus University

         Regional trends in precipitation and stream runoff in Denmark


         Erika Kramer, University of Waterloo

         Local hierarchical extension of Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP)
                method for probabilistic weather forecasting of surface  temperature


         Laura Knudsen, University of Washington

         An international comparison of air quality standards






8:00-10:00          Monitoring the environment and biota on
                           landscape to continental scales I

                           (HUB 200)

         Chair: Joel Reynolds, US Fish and Wildlife Service Anchorage


         Robin O'Malley, The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment

         The state of the nation's ecosystems: Environmental signals at the macro scale


         Jason Legg, Iowa State University

         Imputation procedure to extrapolate data for unobserved panels in longitudinal surveys


         Gretchen Moisen, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station

         Improving efficiency in broad-scale vegetation inventories:
        Examples from the Nevada photo-based inventory pilot


8:00-10:00         Contributed I: Inference for mechanistic                                                     
and stochastic models

                           (HUB 209)

         Chair: Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington


         McLean Sloughter, University of Washington

         Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting using Bayesian model averaging


         Johan Lindstro¶m, University of Lund

         Interpolating precipitation data over the African Sahel using a non-stationary GMRF


         Larissa Stanberry, University of Washington

         Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities


         Eva Furrer, National Center for Atmospheric Research

         Improved treatment of covariates and extremes in climate scenario generation       


         Veronica Berrocal, University of Washington

         Probabilistic weather forecasting for winter road maintenance




10:00-10:15       Coffee break



10:15-12:15       Monitoring the environment and biota on
                           landscape to continental scales II

                           (HUB 200)

         Chair:  Loveday Conquest, University of Washington


         Don Stevens, Oregon State University

         Spatially balanced survey designs for large scale monitoring programs


         Mevin Hooten, Utah State University

         Optimal spatio-temporal sampling designs for monitoring dynamic systems


         Jay Breidt, Colorado State University

         Uncertainty analysis for a US inventory of soil organic carbon stock changes



10:15-12:15       Contributed II: Spatial Methods

                           (HUB 209)

         Chair: Paul Sampson, University of Washington


         Kathryn Irvine, Oregon State University

         Connections between graphical models and models for multivariate spatial data


         Finn Lindgren, University of Lund

         Approximation of generalised Mate©rn covariances using Markov random fields


         Petrutza Caragea, Iowa State University

         A practical approach to analyzing large scale nonstationary spatial data


         Adam Szpiro, University of Washington

         Challenges in predicting intra-urban variation in air pollution levels using data from a complex
             spatio-temporal monitoring design


         Hakmook Kang, Brown University

         Predicting water quality in the Maryland coastal bays using spatio-temporal models




12:15-1:30                  Lunch



1:30-3:30           Paleoclimatic Temperature Reconstruction

                           (HUB 200)

         Chair: Peter Guttorp, University of Washington


         Edward Cook, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

         Tree rings as natural recorders of climatic variability and       

         change: their properties, strengths, and limitations


         David Schneider, University of Colorado

         Water isotopes and ice cores as indicators of climate change: Integrating data, modeling and theory


         Bo Li, National Center for Atmospheric Research

         The uncertain hockey stick: a statistical perspective on the reconstruction of past temperatures



1:30-3:30           Contributed III: Methods in Ecology

                           (HUB 209)

         Chair: Ashley Steel, NOAA Fisheries Seattle


         Joshua J. Lawler, Oregon State University

         Biodiversity in a changing climate: projected climate-induced shifts in species distributions


         Heather Coiner, University of Toronto

         Minimum winter temperatures can predict the northern range limit of kudzu (Pueraria lobata) in
            North America


         Alice Shelly, TerraStat

         Sample design and power analysis for detecting long term
       changes in landbird populations in the North Cascades Coastal Network


         Zuzana Hrdlickova, University of British Columbia Okanagan

         One-way ANOVA type model with negative binomial distribution


         Cynthia Cooper, Environmental Protection Agency Columbus   

        Adapting Melly's quantile-regression Oaxaca/Blinder
        decomposition for continuous factors, to estimate stream stressor
impacts on benthic tail-populations in confounded conditions


         Megan Daily Higgs, Colorado State University

         Spatial models for ordered categorical data



3:30-3:45           Coffee break



3:45-5:45           Assessing Trends in Extreme Climate Events
                           (HUB 200)

         Chair: Peter Guttorp, University of Washington


         Elizabeth Shamseldin, University of North Carolina

         Extreme precipitation: an application modeling n-year return levels
         at the station level in extremes of North American rainfall


         Georg Lindgren, University of Lund

         On marine weather conditions


         Slava Kharin, Environment Canada, Victoria

         Changes in temperature and precipitation annual extremes in
         the IPCC AR4 multi-model ensemble




3:45-5:45           Climate impacts on ocean and freshwater

                           (HUB 209)

         Chair: Lisa Crozier, NOAA Seattle


         Bill Peterson, NOAA Newport

         The Northern California Current Ecosystem: climate variability and
        indices of ocean conditions for fishery management


         Peter Lawson, NOAA Newport

         Climate impacts on Oregon coastal coho salmon, Oncorhynchus
        kisutch: integrating freshwater and marine ecosystems at daily to
        centennial time scales


         Kerym Aydin, NOAA Seattle

         Predicting our predictions: Reporting uncertainty in forecasting
         tools under development for ecosystem-based fisheries management


         Lisa Crozier, NOAA Seattle

         Effects of climate change on Snake River Chinook Salmon



6:00-9:00           Conference dinner

                           (Haggett North Main Dining Room)







8:00-10:00                  Agroclimate risk assessment

                           (HUB 200)

         Chair: Jim Zidek, University of British Columbia


         Nathaniel Newlands, Agriculture Canada

         Canadian agriculture, climate change and extreme weather:
        Developing a credible database of gridded long-term nationwide
        daily agroclimatic data


         Jim Ramsay, McGill University

         Estimating the variation in the quantile function for precipitation
        over space and time


         Nhu Le, BC Cancer Agency, Vancouver

         Modelling precipitations fields for agroclimate risk management




8:00-10:00         Contributed IV: Forest fires, remote
                           sensing, and stochastic modeling

                           (HUB 209)

         Chair: Haiganoush Preisler, US Forest Service Albany


         Sorina Eftim, Johns Hopkins University

         Canada forest fires, transboundary air pollution and
        hospitalizations among the elderly in the Northeastern and Mid-
Atlantic regions of the USA in July 2002


         Don McKenzie, US Forest Service, Seattle

         Geospatial modeling of historical low-severity fire regimes


         Trevor Moffiet, University of Newcastle

         Relationship modelling on bounded spaces with example
         application to the estimation of forest foliage cover by remote sensing


         Johannes Breidenbach, Forest Research Institute Baden-Wuerttemberg

        Comparing methods to estimate above ground biomass by means
         of airborne lidar data


         Owen Hamel, NOAA Seattle

         A mathematical model of the bomb radiocarbon chronometer for
         use in fish age validation


10:00-10:30       Coffee break


10:30-12:30       The role of statistics in environmental policy
(HUB 200)

         Chair: Ashley Steel, NOAA Fisheries Seattle


         Paul Mcelhany, NOAA Fisheries Seattle

         Sensitivity analysis of a model used in the management of ESA-
listed salmonids: making sense of 10,000 parameters


         Tanja Srebotnjak, Yale University

         Among the blind the one-eyed is king: a decision-tree model for
        dealing with incomplete information in environmental policy


         Marianne Turley, Bureau of Land Management, Oregon

         Statistics impact federal environmental policy!! Where? How? Why?



10:30-12:30       Measuring biodiversity and species interactions
(HUB 209)

         Chair: Laurie Ainsworth, Simon Fraser University


         Andy Royle, US Geological Survey

         Hierarchical models for inference in (Meta)community systems


         Emily Silverman, US Fish and Wildlife Service Maryland

         Statistical approaches to measuring species' associations in mixed-
species bird flocks


         Rampal Etienne, University of Groningen

         The utility of the useless: lessons from ecological nihilism




12:30-2:00                  Lunch


2:00-3:00           Keynote Lecture II

                           (HUB 200)

         Chair: Peter Guttorp, University of Washington


         David Brillinger, University of California Berkeley

         Probabilistic risk modeling at the wildland-urban interface: the 2003 Cedar Fire


3:00-3:30           Coffee break



3:30-5:30           Forests, fires and stochastic modeling

                           (HUB 200)

         Chair: Charmaine Dean, Simon Fraser University


         Mike Flannigan, Canadian Forest Service, Sault Ste. Marie

         Climate change and forest fires in Canada


         Haiganoush Preisler, US Forest Service, Albany

         Effects of climate on wildland fires


         Steve Taylor, Canadian Forest Service, Victoria

         Use of stochastic simulation in downscaling climate change

         projections for modeling daily forest insect and host

         development: examples from B.C




3:30-5:30           Contributed V: Climate

                           (HUB 209)

         Chair: Veronica Berrocal, University of Washington


         Mark Greenwood, Montana State University

         Functional linear models for daily or yearly streamflow measures


         Michael Keim, University of Washington

         Characteristic scale analysis of arctic sea ice types using wavelets


         Peter Craigmile, Ohio State University

         Spatial variation in the influence of the North Atlantic oscillation on
         precipitation across Greenland


         Donald Percival, University of Washington

         Arctic sea-ice thickness: Evidence of decline from a multiple
        regression analysis incorporating long-range dependence


         Donald Noakes, Thompson Rivers University

         Decadal scale response of North Pacific ocean marine fisheries to
        regime shifts


         Lelys Guenni, Simon Bolivar University

         Synthesizing climate change projections for Venezuela using
        probabilistic Bayesian approach